新朝報 (2012)
President Mou postpones third round of voting on health care reform bill
(December 3) - As expected, president Mou postponed the third round of voting on the health care reform bill in order to make amendments and gain sufficient support. The current proposal was already rejected twice (the second time with 47 votes inf favor) and would surely be rejected again by the new National Congress, which would end Mou's presidency.
The current proposal is supported by Mou's party, the Democratic Party, by the new party E, by the Land and Sea Party (LSP), and by part of the United Buddhist party (UBP). Those parties together are insufficient for a majority. As there is no chance that Congress members of the People's Party and Liberal-Democratic party will vote for the bill (because those want Mou's presidency to end sooner rather than later), the president's only hope is to get support from the Communist Party (CPH). However, a compromise with CPH, may reduce support by LSP and UBP (but probably not E). Hence, Mou must find a compromise that garners sufficient support from CPH to compensate for the possible loss of support elsewhere (including possibly even his own party).
Democrats pass People's Party; LDP and Communist Party winners of new elections
(November 12) - The new elections for the National Congress (after dissolution) were won by the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) and Communist Party, but most important result is that for the first time since independence, the People's Party is not the largest party. The Democratic Party won 25 seats (gaining 2), while the nationalists won 23 (losing 6).
The Communist Party, the biggest (relative) winner, had 7 seats within the United Left faction but won 12 on its own after an aggressive campaign focusing on health care reform and pensions. The LDP regained the seats they lost in last elections. Some observers suggest that the more open attitude towards international cooperation (in comparison with the People's Party) is the main reason for its growth (respective to the People's Party).
The new party E - Social-Democratic and Green Alliance for Equality and Environment (E) is the remainder of United Left, i.e. an alliance of the Social Democratic Party and Green Party. It lost 3 of its 11 seats (of the 18 of United Left in total; the other 7 were held by the Communist Party). The Christian-Democratic Party, represented since 1987, lost its only seat.
The following table shows the election results of the September and (new) November elections. Percentages on the left; seats on the right:
| party | Sept. | Nov. | ||
| Democratic Party | 23.4% | 23 | 25.4% | 25 |
| People’s Party | 29.3% | 29 | 23.5% | 23 |
| Liberal-Democratic Party | 9.2% | 9 | 13.0% | 13 |
| Land and Sea Party | 12.3% | 12 | 11.2% | 11 |
| Communist Party | 12.1% | 12 | ||
| E | 8.1% | 8 | ||
| United Buddhist Party | 4.7% | 5 | 5.7% | 6 |
| Communist Worker Party | 1.8% | 2 | 0.6% | 1 |
| Christian-Democratic Party | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4% | |
| United Left | 18.7% | 18 | ||
National Congress ratifies Exumbran Treaty in second round, but falls over health care reform bill
(October 9) - Yesterday, the National Congress ratified the Treaty of the Exumbran Convention with 60 votes in favor, 12 more than in the first round. Most of these extra votes came from the Liberal-Democratic (LDP) and Communist factions, which for different reasons do not want to make the Exumbran Convention an election campaign issue. In case of the LDP that is largely because the powerful construction and harbor industry, the party's main source of campaign funds, officially supports membership of the Exumbran Convention and has made it clear to the LDP leadership that they will not pay for an election campaign in which opposition to the Convention plays an important role. In case of the Communist faction, the acceptance of the treaty is because that party wants to focus the election campaign on national rather than international issues.
That there will be another election was already more or less certain before the voting round, as there were two other second voting rounds yesterday, and one of those, on the health care conform bill, was sure to get insufficient votes. This bill was indeed rejected for the second time (with 47 votes in favor), automatically disbanding the parliament. New elections will be held on November 11, and will almost certainly focus on health care and other national issues. By voting for the Exumbran Treaty and against the health care reform bill, the Communist Party faction, although small, got exactly what it wanted: a new election campaign focusing on national issues, and it will use that to try to force president Mou to propose a more radical health care reform and other social reforms.
National Congress rejects ratification of Exumbran treaty in first round of voting
(September 18) - In its first official session since the elections, the National Congress yesterday rejected the proposal for ratification of the Treaty of the Exumbran Convention. The proposal got 48 votes in favor, while 50 votes are needed for any proposal to be accepted. Two other proposed laws were also rejected.
After the Congress session (which also voted on various other proposals and formalities), president Mou immediately formally resubmitted all three rejected proposals, and met with the newly appointed (Democratic) Congress chairman to decide on a date for the second round of voting. This second round will take place on October 8. If the proposals are again rejected in the second round, this will automatically dissolve parliament, and new elections will be held on November 11, followed by the third (and final) voting round on November 19 or 20.
Communist Party leadership calls United Left a "failed experiment"
(September 13) - The leadership of the Communist Party, one of the three parties in the federation United Left that won 18 seats in last election, called this cooperation a "failed experiment". Whether this means that the 7 Communist Party representatives in the United Left faction in National Congress will leave that faction is still unclear, but political commentators expect the United Left faction to fall apart. Possibly, its leader Hsun Hsi-pin can keep together the Greens and Social-Democrats, but without the mass organization of the Communist Party, it will have some difficulty competing with the Communist Party (which has strong support among immigrant workers). It is also still uncertain how this will impact the scheduled vote for ratification of the Exumbran founding treaty next week. Although the Communist Party is (unofficially) moderately in favor of the Exumbran Convention (as are the other two parties in United Left), it is possible that its representatives will vote against ratification to force a new parliamentary election.
update (September 14) - The Communist Party representatives in the United Left faction announced yesterday evening that they will leave that faction (while they haven't even be formally installed, and that faction hasn't even formally met yet), and will continue as the Communist Party faction in National Congress. They further denied that they will vote against ratification for strategic reasons, stating that "for communists principles outweigh strategic considerations", and that each member of their faction should make up their own mind about what to vote. The latter suggests that not all faction members have the same opinion on the matter. This is not a surprise considering that although the Communist Party leadership is moderately in favor, there is a substantial part of the party that is moderately against, and for that reason the party has no official standpoint.
The Social Democratic Party, Green Party, and Hsun Hsi-pin (independent) responded with great disappointed to the decision of the Communist Party representatives, and announced their intention to continue their cooperation.
President Mou proposes foreign construction subsidy bill
(September 11) - One day after the disastrous election, president Mou Siun-en chose a collision course with the National Congress, by proposing a law that will further alienate the conservatives and nationalists from his government. If the proposed law is accepted by parliament, the Huenanese government will pay part of the costs of construction projects in foreign countries that are partly financed by either the Exumbran Development Commission (EDC) or the Exumbran Social Investment Bank (ESIB), if they are carried out by Huenanese construction companies. The proposed law assumes, of course, that Huenan will be a member of the Exumbran Convention, which is currently uncertain given the election results. Furthermore, the proposed law further expands the development cooperation aspect of the Convention, which is the part that the People's Party, but also the Liberal-Democratic Party seem to object to most (albeit unofficially).
The proposal is propbably partly for strategic reasons: while it will further polarize Huenanese politics, it may at the same time weaken the president's main opponents. Huenan has seen many large scale infrastructure projects in the last decades, which contributed greatly to the country's development, and which resulted in a large and powerful construction industry, but in the last ten years it became increasingly difficult to find new big projects. The conglomerate of construction companies, which has historical ties with the People's Party and the Liberal-Democratic Party, increased funding of those parties hoping to get new large projects in return, but continued rule by the Democratic Party made that a waste of money. Furthermore, it has become clear that neither the People's Party nor the Liberal-Democratic Party is really willing to spend as much on unnecessary new construction projects as the construction industry would like. Mou's proposal to find work for Huenan's construction industry overseas may deteriorate the tie between the powerful conglomerate and his political opponents, and move them to support membership of the Exumbran Convention, possibly even to support his government and the Democratic Party. Whether the strategy will work, and whether the Exumbran Convention will lead to sufficient projects in other countries to keep Huenan's construction industry afloat, remains to be seen, of course, but political commentators expect that Mou's strategy will eventually pay off. It is a risky strategy, however, and it may blow up in his face.
update (september 12) - A spokesperson of the construction industry conglomerate said that president Mou's proposal was "a step forward", and that "it will be studied with great interest" and "in a positive spirit". According to some observers, the tone of the conglomerate's response suggests that Mou's strategy may work.
People's Party wins National Congress elections; difficult times ahead for president Mou
(September 10) - Yesterday's parliamentary elections were won by the People's Party, which gained 5 seats. The Democratic party gained 2 seats, but was expecting more. Most disappointed, however, was United Left, which expected to gain much more from the cooperation between the Social-Democratic Party, Communist Party, and Green Party. The combination got 8 seats less than those parties won separately in the 2008 elections. Part of the Communist Party split off after the formation of United Left and participated as the Communist Worker Party, winning 2 seats in this election. This also contributed to the larger-than-expected loss of the United Left.
The following table shows the election results:
| votes | 2012 | 2008 | dif. | |
| People’s Party | 29.3% | 29 | 24 | +5 |
| Liberal-Democratic Party | 9.2% | 9 | 11 | -2 |
| Democratic Party | 23.4% | 23 | 21 | +2 |
| United Left | 18.7% | 18 | (26)* | (-8)* |
| Social-Democratic Party | 12 | * | ||
| Communist Party | 9 | * | ||
| Communist Worker Party | 1.8% | 2 | +2 | |
| Green Party | 5 | * | ||
| Land and Sea Party | 12.3% | 12 | 11 | +1 |
| Christian-Democratic Party | 0.6% | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| United Buddhist Party | 4.7% | 5 | 4 | +1 |
| 99 | 99 |
Note (*) that United Left did not participate in the 2008 election, but is formed out of three parties that did participate independently.
This election result, and especially the growth of the (conservative, nationalist) People's Party, will make it very difficult for president Mou Siun-en to get some of the law proposals that he announced in his (presidential) election campaign approved by the National Congress. His own party (Democratic) has less than a quarter of the seats and he cannot count on the support of United Left and the Land and Sea Party for all his proposals. One of the first issues on the agenda of the new parliament - to be installed next week - is the ratification of the Treaty of the Exumbran Convention and it is doubtful that there will be a majority for that. Since president Mou, by hosting the preparatory conference of the Exumbran Convention in May and June, made the Huenanese membership in that organization a core policy issue of his current term, it is to be expected that he will immediately resubmit the proposal to parliament if it is indeed rejected. The question is what will happen then: if the National Congress rejects again, there will be new elections, but there is no guarantee that there will be a more favorable result then, and a third "no" would end Mou's presidency and political career. Moreover, this is only the first controversial and difficult issue on the agenda.
see also: Politics of Huenan
Exumbran Convention founded in New Courland
(August 24) - Yesterday the founding treaty of the Exumbran Convention was signed in New Courland by the host country, Huenan, and seven other countries: Adzhatia in Northern Europe, Chimor in South America, Dhram Phá, Harrawi and Kpwahele & Nɣurumba in East Africa, Khusqaikama, and Kronenburg in North America. The purpose of the new international organization is cooperation in dealing with, or even solving the member states' shared problems, which are mostly the result of the fact that they are relatively small and unknown countries that are overshadowed by much larger and more influential countries or economic blocks in their vicinity. The Convention is mainly focusing on the exchange of industrial and technological knowledge and ideas, and cooperation in the further development thereof, by means of which the member states hope to profit from each others' knowledge and strengths. Additionally the Convention will also invest in the economies of the poorest member states to help them develop. Because of Huenan's experience with regards to economic development, it was decided that the offices of the Exumbran Development Commission (EDC), and the central coordinating office of the Exumbran Institutes of Development and Industry (EIDI) will be located in our country. The latter will be associated with the Huenan Institute of Development Economics (HIDE), worldwide the largest institute in its field.
United Left to participate in parliamentary election
(June 28) - United Left, the federation of Social-Democratic Party (SDP), Communist Party (CP), and Green party announced yesterday that they will participate in the elections for the National Congress in September as one party. The independent candidate Hsun Hsi-pin, who was also the presidential candidate for United Left, will top the list of candidates, which will further observe the following repeating pattern: SDP - CP - Green - SDP - CP. Recent polls suggest that United Left may get up to one-and-a-half as many seats as the three parties would get together if they would participate in the elections separately, which is presumed to be the main reason for the decision.
Guin presents plans for "Exumbran Convention"
(June 27) - In a press conference yesterday, minister of foreign affairs Guin Hagan (景赫) presented the results of the diplomatic conference that has been taking place for over a month in Fuu-hian. The eight countries involved in these talks reach agreement on the outlines for a new international organization called the "Exumbran Convention". Further details still need to be filled in, but a founding summit has already been scheduled for August 23rd in New Courland.
The name of the new organization refers to its key purpose: 'stepping out of the shade'. Member states of the organization are relatively small and/or unknown countries that are 'overshadowed' by larger countries or economic blocks in their vicinity, and the Convention aims to work together to overcome the specific problems resulting from this. Some of the countries that may become members, such as Huenan and Kronenburg have been very successful at doing this, while others have been less successful, but even Huenan and Kronenburg can learn from each other and from other countries in similar situations to further lead their peoples on the path of progress.
The Exumbran Convention is planned to have several commissions and scientific institutes, some of which are close in purpose to our own HIDE. The most important commissions are focused at development cooperation and scientific cooperation. Guin expects that cooperating in development cooperation will result in a more efficient use of these funds. Additionally, there will be an investment bank that will loan money to entrepreneurs and companies.
According to Guin, the Huenanese government is very positive about the plans and is expecting the cooperation within the Exumbran Convention to be fruitful. To the question how cooperation with a country like Dhram Phá (which until recently did not even recognize Huenan) is possible, or even with a democratic, but notoriously 'difficult' country like Khusqaikama (which refuses to adopt various aspects of international private law), he replied rather evasively that the future will tell, but that he does not foresee any problems as these countries intend to join the Convention for the same reason as Huenan and thus are already "facing in the same direction".
Even though the current Democratic government is planning to join the new organization, parliamentary elections later this year could potentially result in an obstacle. It is common knowledge that parts of the People's Party, Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP), Land and Sea Party (LSP), and some smaller parties are somewhat skeptical (if not downright negative) about the proposed new organization and consider it a waste of money and time. None of these parties have formulated an official position yet, but it is (at least in theory) possible that there will be majority against ratification of the Treaty of the Exumbran Convention, which would probably cause the downfall of the current government.
(update - June 28) - The proposed Huenanese name of the Exumbran Convention is 出影公約 (Ciǝt-thun-giun-jǝ).
Mou Siun-en (Democrat) re-elected as president
(June 4) - As most observers expected, Mou Siun-en was re-elected president of Huenan in the second round of this year's presidential election which took place yesterday. It was a much closer race than expected, however. Mou won with only 53.8% of the votes.
United Left pulls out of presidential elections
(May 29) - In a speech to the campaign volunteers and other active members of the constituting parties of the United Left, presidential candidate Hsun Hsi-pin (鐘婕萍), after thanking the campaign volunteers, announced her withdrawal from the presidential election. Even if our campaign would be so successful this week that we would move on to the third round, she said, then that would only result in handing the victory to the People's Party. This, of course, is true. If the United Left would indeed be very successful in campaigning, then most of the additional votes would come from current Democratic Party voters resulting in a third round of United Left versus People's Party, which would be won - with a considerable margin - by the People's Party. In her speech, Hsun also thanked her voters and asked them to vote for the Democratic candidate in the second (and final) round of the elections. The campaign volunteers were asked to distribute pamphlets explaining the decision to pull out of the election and advise to vote Democratic.
People's party wins first round of presidential elections
(May 28) - In the first round of this year's presidential elections, which was held yesterday, the candidate of the (nationalist) People's Party got 38.3% of the votes. The current president, Mou Siun-en, received 27.7% as candidate of the Democratic Party. Third and fourth were the candidates of United Left (22.0%) and Land and Sea Party (LSP; 12.0%). The last will be eliminated for the second round to be held next Sunday. It is expected that most of the votes for LSP will go to the Democratic Party with far smaller shares for the other two parties. Turnout in this first round was low, which especially affected the Democratic Party. With most of the LSP votes and higher turnout (because more will be at stake), the Democratic Party might win the second round, or will get very close to the People's Party at least.
New Morning conducted a survey yesterday evening after the first results were in to ask voters about the next rounds and a few related issues. There are three possible combinations of two candidates for the final round, although obviously, not all of these are equally likely to happen. As it turns out, in all three cases, one of these parties would win with a large margin. The People's Party would win in a race against the United Left, but in either of the other two combinations, the Democratic Party would win. Because the survey indicated that after the second round, the United Left candidate will be eliminated (also with a large margin), it is almost certain that president Mou can serve another term.
We also asked voters whether they would consider voting for the United Left if the three constituting parties (Social Democratic Party (SDP), Communist Party (HCP), and Green Party) would participate in the parliamentary elections later this year as a single party again. The results suggest that the United Left would get more votes than its three constituting parties together (if those would participate separately). However, the SDP would lose part of its electorate to the Democratic Party, which might harm the position of the SDP (now the largest of the three) within United Left. Whether there are plans to participate as United Left in the parliamentary elections is unknown, by the way, but it is generally assumed that the presidential election campaign and result are a test to see whether successful cooperation is possible.
Huenan hosts international diplomatic conference
(May 24) - Yesterday a diplomatic conference on a new international organization started in Fuu-hian. The initiative for this was taken by the block of more ambitious FICT member states. These, and a few other interested countries, have been engaged in long-distance diplomacy to discuss whether there should be a new organization and what it should do. The conference that started yesterday is intended to further streamline this process. It is a conference of diplomats, not government leaders, and it does not have any official status. The conference has two purposes: allowing countries that have not yet participated in the negotiations to participate, and creating the first draft of the founding treaty and necessary additional regulations.
Huenan to take part in negotiations on new international organization
(April 21) - In a short press release yesterday evening, the government of Huenan announced its intention to accept the 'open invitation' to take part in discussions regarding a new international organization aimed at relatively small and unknown countries that are overshadowed by much larger and more influential countries or economic blocks in their vicinity. The initiative for this organization was taken by a group of 5 countries that are disappointed about the lack of ambition of FICT, an organization they co-founded or joined with the purpose of collectively working on solutions for the shared problems resulting from their geopolitical statuses. Our country, of course, has been in a similar position, and perhaps still is, but has been able to find means for economic development, partially thanks to the support of our historical partners, such as the United States of America. According to president Mou Siun-en and his party (the Democratic Party), it is time to pass on the help we received to other countries and help them grow, and this new organization may be an excellent opportunity to do just that, while at the same time continuing to work on our own further development.
left-wing parties represented by single candidate in presidential election
(April 11) - The three left-wing parties Social Democratic Party (SDP), Communist Party (HCP), and Green Party have registered a single candidate for the presidential elections in May (first round on May 27) under the name "United Left". Despite the fact that all three parties are expected to lose seats in the parliamentary elections later this year - see prognosis below - the United Left candidate may become a threat for the Democratic candidate, possibly even resulting in a victory for the People's Party because in a hypothetical final round between the Left and People's candidate, the latter will almost certainly win. Furthermore, because the Land and Sea Party also registered a candidate, and that candidate may very well pass the 10% barrier as well, it is not unlikely that this will be the first presidential election requiring three rounds (while even two rounds has been exceptional). (See also: Politics of Huenan.)
| current | prognosis | |
| People’s Party | 24 | 31 |
| Democratic Party | 21 | 27 |
| Social-Democratic Party | 12 | 6 |
| Liberal-Democratic Party | 11 | 7 |
| Land and Sea Party | 11 | 15 |
| Communist Party | 9 | 7 |
| Green Party | 5 | 2 |
| United Buddhist Party | 4 | 3 |
| Christian-Democratic Party | 2 | 1 |